Naypyitaw paralyzed as an ailing Than Shwe clings to power

Larry Jagan
Mizzima News
www.mizzima.com

February 5, 2008 - Burma's junta is in trouble as it faces the future with an ailing general in charge. Senior General Than Shwe is sinking fast, according to sources close to him. "He's losing his mind – forgetting who has been cashiered in the past, becoming increasingly reclusive and trusting no one around him," said a senior military source in Naypyitaw, Burma's new capital – four hundred kilometers north of Rangoon.

At the same time tension within the army is beginning to show. Many officers are resentful that there have been no military promotions for more than eight months because the governing State Peace and Development Council has failed to meet due to Than Shwe's health and mood swings.

Continuous intelligence failures have also forced the senior general to reappoint Major General Kyaw Win, his former deputy intelligence chief under General Khin Nyunt, to a 500,000 kyat salary posting to run the training school. Several other former intelligence officers have also been reappointed, according to sources close to former intelligence officials.

Than Shwe is worried that current military intelligence operations, set up after Khin Nyunt and most of his military intelligence officers were sacked and many given stiff jail sentences, may not be up to the task. They have been unable to find those behind several recent bombings, including one in Naypyitaw. They also failed to predict and prevent last year's mass demonstrations.

But the senior general's woes don't stop there. The economy is continuing to deteriorate rapidly while the international community steps up pressure on the regime to reform. The European Union is expected to increase selective sanctions against the generals in the next few months while U.S. President George Bush vows to keep the Burma issue as a high priority in the dying days of his administration.

In the meantime a group of prominent lawyers in Europe and the United States are preparing in the coming months to lodge a petition against the junta at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, alleging the crackdown on the monks in September was a crime against humanity.

"There's total inertia in Naypyitaw, no one dares make a decision, even in regard to the smallest matters, without approval from the top, which is rarely forthcoming," a senior government official confided to a Western diplomat recently.

"Nothing is happening at all, everyone is waiting for Than Shwe to die," according to a senior Asian government minister, who recently met his Burmese counterpart at an ASEAN function outside the country.

Than Shwe's health is rapidly worsening, according to diplomats, who have seen him recently. "He may be getting Alzheimer's – he periodically forgets things; he recently asked where several officers were, all of whom were sacked last year during the mass retirements of middle ranking officers," according to a government source in Naypyitaw.

"He's rapidly going senile, and now has increasing heart problems," according to another government source. He already suffers from chronic diabetes and has regular bouts of hypertension. Several years ago he also suffered a mild stroke. Now with heart coronary problems and dementia, he is becoming increasingly incapacitated.

Singapore doctors have been making regular visits to Than Shwe's residence in Naypyitaw over the last few months, according to Southeast Asian diplomatic sources.

"For almost a decade now Than Shwe has refused to have his annual medical check-up done by Burmese army doctors for fear that this would leave him vulnerable and in danger of being ousted as he did to General Saw Maung [some fifteen years ago, on the pretext of suffering a nervous break-down]," a former military doctor told Mizzima on the condition of anonymity.

Last month he had a minor cardiac operation, in Naypyitaw. Singapore doctors went to the capital to perform a balloon angioplasty. A major quadruple heart bypass operation though has been scheduled for later this month in Singapore – as the facilities in Burma are too primitive.

This latest health problem has caused Than Shwe to postpone the quarterly meeting of the junta until the end of the month -- the first meeting they will have had since the brutal crackdown on the monk-led demonstrations last August and September in response to price rises.

"The generals have not met for more than eight months, since before the August and September protests, so during that time, apart from the appointment of three regional commanders, there have been no promotions," a Chiang Mai-based Burmese analyst, Win Min, told Mizzima.

That is going to be the first order of the day. Than Shwe also realizes that most senior generals, including regional commanders, actually owe their personal allegiance to Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann and not him. This is beginning to trouble him as he fears that his immediate subordinates may be planning a putsch against him.

"For the past twelve months, Than Shwe has been preoccupied with sidelining Maung Aye," a military source told Mizzima. "He has been relatively successful in this, but Maung Aye constantly manages to harass him, block promotions, or disrupt decisions in a fit of spite," he added.

In the latest show of strength, he ordered the Mayor of Rangoon to take down billboards across town urging people to "oppose those pessimistic axe-handles who are relying on America" because he objected to the use of America, preferring instead not to distinguish between foreign enemies.

After the promotions Than Shwe plans a major cabinet reshuffle with many of the old guard being forced to retire, to allow the regional commanders to be appointed to some of these senior posts, and to allow younger officers their chance to become commanders in the field. Until that happens, government administration is at a standstill, according to diplomats in Rangoon.

To make matters worse, many Burmese astrologers are predicting black times for the senior general. The solar eclipse later this week is seen as a bad omen for Than Shwe's health and family fortunes. While the wily old general has survived previous astrological predictions of doom, his grip on power is being increasingly weakened by ill-health and inertia.

"Burma remains a social volcano about to erupt," a major Burmese businessman told Mizzima on condition of anonymity. "It's a cauldron boiling away underneath," according to a senior European diplomat based in Bangkok who has followed Burmese affairs for more than a decade. "Sooner or later it's going to explode," he predicted.
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