Burma’s Referendum—‘History is Repeating Itself’

By WAI MOE - The Irrawaddy News

The lack of official tolerance of dissidents in Burma and of openness gives rise to concern that the planned constitutional referendum will not be free and fair. The top junta generals seem too confident about the likely result.

Chapter III of the law providing for the referendum law determines that a referendum commission is to be formed. But the legislation does not make clear how the members of the commission and sub-commissions will be chosen or whether the selection process will be free and fair.

The law provides for the formation of sub-commissions for states and divisions. District divisions will have 15 members, ward or village sub-commissions five to 20 members.

Chapter VII of the legislation says that if a situation requiring a dissolution of referendum voting for any treason, the ward or village-tract sub-commissions may dissolve some polling booths or all polling booths within their area.

“This section is really stupid,” a Rangoon political observer told The Irrawaddy. “The referendum law is full of tricks allowing the regime to do as it pleases.”

Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in a special statement on the law on Thursday, said the junta’s approach, excluding opposition voices, lacked legitimacy and badly affected the national reconciliation process.

“The NLD won more than 80 percent of parliamentary seats in the 1990 election,” said the NLD. The statement pointed out that a decree passed by the regime after the 1990 election, known as 1/90, said the work of writing a constitution would be undertaken by those elected in the 1990 poll.

Critics point out that those who led the National Convention and the constitution drafting committee would now also lead the referendum commission. That meant that the junta denied an inclusive process in drafting the constitution and transition to democracy, ignoring the reaction of the international community.

In a reaction to the referendum law, the US said on Thursday that the path to national reconciliation in Burma lies in the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and the establishment of a meaningful dialogue between the junta leadership, democratic forces and ethnic minorities leading to a transition to democracy.

“A credible political transition in Burma must be inclusive and transparent. It must involve universal suffrage, secrecy and security of the ballot, and freedom of speech and association, among other internationally accepted standards,” said US State Department Spokesman Tom Casey.

Thein Nyunt, a lawyer, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday that he noticed the junta referendum law is quite similar to legislation in the early 1970s providing for a referendum in 1973.

“Under the previous law, anyone who was against the referendum could be sentenced to one year’s imprisonment,” he said. “But now people can receive three years imprisonment under the terms of the present law.”

The junta has also not withdrawn decree 5/96, which threatens opponents of the constitution with prison terms of up 20 years. “Unless the 5/96 decree is withdrawn, we cannot say the referendum will be free and fair,” Thein Nyunt said.

Many Burmese say no referendum or election can be held while the junta ignores the voice of the majority. “After soldiers beat and killed monks on the streets last September, this call for a referendum on the junta’s agenda is humiliating,” said a Rangoon school teacher.

In the 1990 poll, local, respected people were able to participate in the election commissions and sub-commissions. But, according reports in Burma, members of the junta-backed mass organization, Union Solitary and Development Association (USDA), will make up the referendum commissions and sub-commissions.

A journalist in Rangoon, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the referendum law seems to close the door on the country’s dissidents, and a new generation will now have to live under repressive rule.

The question arises: how can the junta be so confident in the referendum after its brutal crackdown on the September 2007 demonstrations?

The junta displayed a similar confidence in the 1990 election, believing the pro- junta National Unity Party would win handsomely. Its confidence now is based on the official claim that the USDA has 24 million members, making up about two thirds of Burma’s electorate.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese political analyst based on the Sino-Burma border said the large number of USDA members among Burma’s 32 million voters “could make the generals think they have the upper hand in the referendum and election. History is repeating itself.”

Aung Kyaw Zaw said it was “out of question” that students, teachers and civil servants had been forced to join the USDA.

Analysts at home and abroad say that the junta plans for a constitutional referendum and a general election are intended to give an impression of legitimacy and credibility before the international community.

“The referendum is just a fake process, something the junta is doing to try and legitimize itself,” said a Thai scholar who specializes on Burma-Thailand history. “If the constitution is approved by a majority, the junta would have the legitimacy to remain in power and change the country inn their own way.”

“It would also be a good excuse or reason to prevent the UN or other countries intervening in Burma’s internal affairs,” said the scholar, speaking under condition of anonymity.