Observers Split over Junta’s Constitution

By WAI MOE
The Irrawaddy News
www.irrawaddy.org

March 11, 2008 - The majority of Burmese people, whether at home or abroad, regard the military government’s constitution as a door shut in the face of national reconciliation. However, views vary on how to approach the current political situation.

In a confidential e-mail distributed among Burma observers and recently obtained by The Irrawaddy, Dr Nay Win Maung, publisher of Living Color magazine and The Voice weekly in Rangoon, wrote that the crucial decision for Aung San Suu Kyi is whether to offer Snr-Gen Than Shwe a way out of the deadlock.

By Suu Kyi saying no to the referendum, it shows a lack of willingness to let Than Shwe escape—it’s somehow like boxing him “into the corner,” wrote Nay Win Maung in the email message on February 23.

“Again, this may lead to another political deadlock,” he warned.

Nay Win Maung belongs to the so-called “Third Force” in Burma—a group founded during the International Burma Studies (IBS) conference in Singapore in mid-2006 that is neither pro-junta nor pro-opposition. The group includes Dr Khin Zaw Win, a former political prisoner. They advocate engagement and a business-friendly policy with the junta, and are anti-sanctions.

He also said that regardless of whatever the outcome of the referendum, it was certain that the constitution would ultimately be rectified.

This takes us “back to square one,” said Nay Win Maung. Everyone should understand that Than Shwe will not accept any deal, or way out, offered by Suu Kyi or her party, the National League for Democracy.

“This time Burmese people should be smart enough and set their emotions aside, so as not to [create] another deadlock,” he said.

Nay Win Maung did offer six suggestions to Suu Kyi and the NLD. He urged Suu Kyi to endorse the constitution. He also requested the NLD to focus on the election, essentially to make sure the NLD are not “disenfranchised.”

“Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should provide a goodwill gesture in [giving Than Shwe a way out] by saying yes to the constitution,” he said.

In his fourth suggestion he said that in order to ensure a free and fair election and a strong opposition, the NLD must declare that they are only going to contest half of the seats in both chambers—in a way, sending a signal to the regime that their objective is to be merely the opposition.

He also suggested that Suu Kyi “learn to differentiate between genuine opposition politics and confrontational politics,” so she can build a shadow government.

In his final comment, Nay Win Maung said that Suu Kyi could strengthen her organization while serving in the opposition for five years.

Nay Win Maung’s e-mail was sent to several prominent politicians, including ethnic leaders in exile.

Nay Win Maung was not available for comment when The Irrawaddy called his office on Tuesday.

Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese political commentator living in exile, told The Irrawaddy that this approach is an option to break through the deadlock in the country.

“We have to stop living in the past,” he said. “It only prolongs the deadlock and conflict.”

Meanwhile, Win Min, a Burmese political analyst in Thailand, said that Suu Kyi and the NLD should endorse the constitution on the condition that the generals lift the ban on Suu Kyi from running in the upcoming election. He said that even if the NLD is prepared to act as opposition, the junta may still not tolerate having a strong opposition in the country.

Win Min also said that although the constitution is the junta’s own draft, other parties will get 75 percent of the people’s parliament. “The junta wants to be ‘old wine in a new bottle’; then they will legitimize their repression of the Burmese people. If the junta wants the opposition to endorse their rule, they must compromise for national reconciliation,” he said.

One of the secretaries of the National Council of the Union of Burma, Aung Moe Zaw, said, “Some experts think endorsing the constitution is better than nothing. But people will not see it like this. People want to see a long-term guarantee for their future—real democracy and freedom.”

“If the NLD endorses this unjust constitution, people in Burma will object,” he added. “People will go their own way.”