The UN Considers its Options on Burma - Analysis

By LALIT K JHA
The Irrawaddy News
www.irrawaddy.org

March 18, 2008 - The UN special envoy for Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, met the UN General Assembly president, Srgjan Kerim, on Monday and briefed him on his recent trip to Burma and the progress of his efforts to nudge the country towards a restoration of democracy and protection of human rights.

Gambari is also scheduled to brief the powerful 15-member UN Security Council on Tuesday. He is expected to give a frank assessment of the current situation in Burma and to outline what the international community can do, in his view, to ensure that the junta addresses the demands of the international community, including calls for the release of pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.

Gambari ended his third visit to Burma in a little over six months on March 10. During his visit, the UN envoy met Aung San Suu Kyi and several senior military officials. However, he made little visible progress towards achieving the goals set by the UN Security Council through its presidential statement in October.

Now that the approach of “dialogue and accommodation” has demonstrably failed, the United Nations appears to be set to review its Burma policy.

A UN diplomat privy to a meeting between Gambari and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in Dakar, Senegal last week told The Irrawaddy that the UN is now reevaluating its approach to Burma. “That is what the purpose (of the meeting) was,” the diplomat said.

During his meeting with the UN secretary-general, Gambari is believed to have conceded that he has been unable to get things moving in Burma.

The junta’s public snubbing of the UN envoy, which was widely reported by the official media, made it clear to Gambari that his approach of accommodating the generals in an effort to engage them in a dialogue on ways to move forward has not worked.

Despite several rounds of discussions with junta leaders and military officials in Burma and countless trips to capitals around the world over the past six months, Gambari has been unable to accomplish any of the goals set by himself, by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, or by the Security Council.

Nonetheless, following his meeting with Gambari, the UN General Assembly President Srgjan Kerim expressed confidence in the work of the special envoy. He also issued a statement calling for “serious engagement and strong commitment” from all parties to further national reconciliation.

Kerim said he was encouraged by the fact that the UN envoy was able to meet with key figures, including Suu Kyi, as well as with representatives of the Referendum Convening Commission and the Constitution Drafting Committee.

The General Assembly president also said that he hoped the Burmese regime would be open to giving the UN a monitoring role in an upcoming referendum on the new draft constitution, even though the military junta has already rejected the proposal.

Now that Gambari’s efforts have failed to yield any favorable results, UN diplomats are brainstorming what the world body’s next policy towards Burma should be.

But neither the UN nor member states that have taken a strong pro-democracy stance have a “plan B” on which they can move immediately. Given the interest of key neighboring countries and the pro-junta position of Russia and China inside the Security Council, it is unlikely that a consensus on a new UN policy towards Burma will emerge anytime soon.

Following his briefing with the Security Council, Gambari is also expected to participate in a meeting of the secretary-general’s Friends of Burma group later this week. These meetings, officials said, would set the ground for preparing a new policy on Burma.

Those closely watching these developments said that time is running out, as the referendum on the junta-drafted constitution is scheduled to take place in May, and the world body has still taken no effective measures to ensure that pro-democracy forces and ethnic groups are given a voice. They also point out that the junta must release Suu Kyi and enter into a time-bound dialogue with her.

But whether the UN can pressure the generals to make any concessions, with Russia and China possibly blocking any efforts to impose sterner measures against the regime, is the million-dollar question. Russia, which holds the presidency of Security Council for the month of March, is unlikely to allow the 15-member body to take any strong stance against the junta, as advocated by pro-democracy supporters.

Reflecting the views of millions of Burmese, however, three Security Council members—the United States, Britain and France—are now expected to push for a binding resolution against Burma. This means that the generals may soon be forced to listen to the language of confrontation—a language they understand much better than the more conciliatory noises now coming out of the United Nations.