Cyclone Could Unleash Political Upheaval

By WAI MOE
The Irrawaddy News

Tropical cyclone Nargis was not only a natural disaster, but it could also signal a political upheaval for the Burmese junta if the generals fail to handle it well.

Nargis, a Category 3 cyclone, hit Rangoon, the Irrawaddy delta, the Pegu Division and Mon and Karen States on Saturday. The military junta named the five regions disaster zones.

A government statement on Monday, however, signed by Col Than Shin on behalf of the military regime, was not related to the disaster but contained a response to the UN Security Council’s latest presidential statement, which called for a free and fair referendum.

The junta said that it was surprised by the Security Council statement, but declared its determination to carry on with the referendum on May 10.

The junta mouth piece Myanma Alin still carries a daily campaign urging a “Yes” vote, and carried a report highlighting a canvassing tour of Sagaing Division, northern Burma, by the Minister of Information, Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan.

State-run MRTV reported on a cabinet meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein, to discuss the cyclone disaster, with exacted an official death toll of almost 4000 people and made hundreds of thousands homeless.

The front and back pages of Myanma Alin on Monday showed Gen Thein Sein, who heads a state disaster committee, viewing cyclone damage in Rangoon’s North Dagon Myothit Township.

“The state disaster committee includes the armed forces, police, and fire squad. But the report did not name the junta’s mass organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association, (USDA) in the committee,” said a Rangoon student.

Rangoon residents told The Irrawaddy on Monday that most of the cyclone victims received no aid from government agencies or international ones. “My house was destroyed by the storm, but no authority came to ask about damage or assistance,” said one.

A physician who runs a private clinic in Thaketa Township, Rangoon, said he had heard of no emergency plans for treating the injured. “Last night many people injured in the disaster came to my clinic for treatment. But they came by themselves, not with state aid.”

The physician said the shortage of water was now a problem for all. There was also no power.

Rangoon and other towns in lower Burma were ill-prepared for the cyclone, unlike neighboring Bangladesh, which is regularly hit by such storms.

Mismanagement and corruption in every section of the junta’s administration also take their toll, hindering a rapid response by rescue workers and security forces.

“I don’t know where the troops and Swan Ah-shin who beat up peaceful protesters in the September demonstrations are now,” said a Rangoon housewife. “They were quick to arrive in September. Now they can’t come to aid cyclone victims.”

The monks who led the September mass demonstration are helping clear the storm debris and providing victims with food, according to one Rangoon resident.

The price of basic commodities leapt in the wake of the cyclone. Markets are crowded but food is in short supply.

The junta delayed opening the door for humanitarian aid from the international community. The Burmese regime has a policy of cooperating as little as possible with international aid agencies, which are regarded by many military officials as neocolonialist “tools.”

In April, junta newspapers accused the International Committee of the Red Cross of supporting rebel groups in Karen state.

The Burma Campaign-UK, a London-based free-Burma group, said on Saturday that the Burmese regime failed to give adequate warnings to the population about the approach of the cyclone.

The junta places restrictions on the UN and international aid agencies delivering humanitarian assistance, the group said. “This is yet another example of how the regime ignores the welfare of the people of Burma,” said Mark Farmaner, director of the Burma Campaign-UK.

However, Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese political analyst, said the junta is unwilling to allow international aid and emergency teams into the country ahead of the referendum.

“The ruling generals don’t want to see many international agencies, aid workers or rescue teams near the referendum or during the referendum.”

Win Min, a Burma expert at Thailand’s Chiang Mai University, said: “I heard people are getting angry at the authorities because of lack of prevention and disaster relief. It is not good for the junta’s referendum plan.”