Junta's reshuffle; what lies behind?

Mungpi - Mizzima News

23 June 2008, New Delhi - In an unusual and sudden move, Burma's military junta has reshuffled several key army officers and promoted young officers to the important rank of regional military commanders.

The reshuffle, which included promoting at least four young officers to regional commanders, is seen as a significant move by observers who think the junta may be gearing up for its planned general elections in 2010.

While the secretive junta is known to reshuffle its officers from time to time, shifting around about 200 officers from their ranks could be a move especially designed for the post 2010 general elections, a Burmese military analyst based in China said.

Mya Maung, the Sino-Burmese border based analyst said, "This time it is significant as at least 200 of them have been reshuffled."

While it is obvious that the junta is infusing 'Young Blood' into its control mechanism, it is more than apparent that the junta is preparing for a new form of governance that is likely to surface after the 2010 general elections, the fifth step of the junta's planned roadmap to democracy.

"It is possible that the junta is making way for the younger generation to come up but the junta could also have different plans. It could also be a preparation," Mya Maung added.

Sources in the military establishment said the junta has ordered the transfer of four of its key military commanders to positions in the Bureau of Special Operations (BSO).

The source added that four officers of the BSO were made to retire in order to make way for the newly transferred officers, while five young officers were promoted to commanders of Triangle, Eastern, Southern, Northern and Rangoon division commands.

"While it means pumping new blood into the junta's ruling mechanism, it is significant for even the BSO officers have been moved," Win Min, a Burmese analyst based in Thailand said.

Win Min, also suggested that the reshuffle may be the result of power struggle between the junta's top generals – Snr. Gen. than Shwe and Vice Snr. Gen. Maung Aye.

"But this reshuffle will further strengthen Than Shwe's power, as most of the officers who have been given control of strategic commands are his loyalists," Win Min said.

Win Min, however, does not rule out the possibility that the junta's reshuffle may indicate its plan for a new form of governance post general elections.

According to the ruling junta's planned roadmap to democracy, the approval of a draft constitution will be followed by a general election, after which the winning party will govern the country in keeping with the constitution.

The junta in February announced that it will hold general elections in 2010, though it has not set any specific date.

Critics have slammed the junta's roadmap to democracy, declared its draft constitution as non inclusive and called the process of referendum approving the constitution -- 'rigged'.

"It seems the junta is slowly planning its new administration after the elections," Win Min said.

Mya Maung, from the Sino-Burmese border said, the junta's plan is to switch from direct military dictatorship to a new civilian dictatorship, which was effectively implemented by its predecessor General Ne Win from 1962 to 1988.

"So, it is likely that the junta is retiring some of its key people to form a civilian cabinet that will actually rule the country," Mya Maung said.

Bo Bo Kyaw Nyien, a veteran Burmese political observer, however, said it might be too early to jump to any kind of conclusion and it requires observation of the junta's next move.

"The reshuffle is definitely a significant move, but in politics it will be too early to jump to conclusions before observing their [the junta] next move," Bo Bo Kyaw Nyien said.