Reshuffle Could Signal Changes at the Top

By MIN LWIN
The Irrawaddy News

Burma’s ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has reshuffled its military commanders following the replacement of the country’s navy chief and two ministers last week.

Details of the latest reshuffle have yet to emerge, although it is reported to have been planned as long ago as March. Observers believe many senior officers have been allowed to retire.

According to exile dissidents and military observers who have close connection with Burma’s armed forces, four Bureau of Special Operations (BSO) heads were allowed to retire. Burma currently has six BSO headquarters headed by senior ranking military officers and members of the SPDC.

Four BSOs established in November 2001 run all thirteen regional commands throughout Burma. Unconfirmed reports say BSO-5 was created in 2006 under the command of a loyal Than Shwe officer, Lt Gen Myint Swe, previously commander of the Rangoon division.

Observers see the recent reshuffle as an attempt by Than Shwe to inject new blood in the military and to consolidate his power. With the exception of Myint Swe who is in his late 50s, all BSO heads were nearing retirement age and some are believed to be seriously ill.

The reshuffle is thought by some observers to have no connection to last month’s cyclone disaster and rumors of rising tension among the top army leaders. Nevertheless, navy chief Adm Soe Thein was suddenly removed from his post and put in charge of the ministry of industry 2.

Meanwhile, rumors widely circulating in Rangoon and the exiled community in Thailand suggest that Than Shwe is soon to give up his post as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and hand over the top job to Gen Shwe Mann, the number three man in the armed forces and currently army chief-of-staff and coordinator of air force, navy and army operations. It is also suggested that Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, deputy commander in chief of the armed forces, will also leave office.

Shwe Mann and Lt Gen Myint Swe are rumored likely to take over two top posts, although Than Shwe and Maung Aye will remain members of the SPDC, considered to be the most powerful decision making body in Burma.

Some Burma watchers suggest that Than Shwe could create a Chinese-style military commission and continue to call the shots. There has been no independent confirmation of this information, however.

Political observers suggest that Than Shwe and his close associates are preparing for the 2010 election and that reshuffles and changes of guard at the top are occurring in view of the transition to a civilian government controlled by the military.