India’s Pro-junta Stand Unlikely to Change, Say Analysts

By Wai Moe
The Irrawaddy News
www.irrawaddy.org
January 21, 2008

India’s “Look East” foreign policy favoring the Burmese regime is not likely to change soon despite appeals by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari, observers say.

Brown met Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Monday and told him India has an important role to play in Burma’s transition to democracy and an end to that country’s problems.

Brown told reporters on Sunday that China was “working resolutely” on how to use its influence with Burma—“and we will be looking at how we can persuade the Burmese regime.”

Gambari also told India’s television station NDTV recently that the UN wanted India to do more, drawing attention to India’s signing of a huge contract to build a port in Burma.

Gambari said India was “a democratic country with true commitment to human rights. We also believe that a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Myanmar [Burma] would be an even better partner for India than what the situation is right now.”

Gambari said the best guarantee for India’s investment was a peaceful, stable and democratic Burma. “What concerns us is not really their bilateral relations, but to use that, in our view, as an opportunity and leverage to help us by transmitting right messages.”

Win Min, a Burmese analyst based in Thailand, said India was second only to China in the influence it had over Burma. After China called for political changes following the September 2007 demonstrations, India then also openly talked about Burmese democracy.

“Previously India did not talk about Aung San Suu Kyi’s release and dialogue,” Win Min said. “But during the visit to New Delhi by Foreign Minister Nyan Win India spoke out about her freedom and a meaningful dialogue, including ethnic issues.”

However, Tint Swe of Burma’s government in exile, the National Coalition Government of Union of Burma, based in New Delhi, said India’s Burma policy did not appear to have changed significantly even after the September demonstrations and regime crackdown. “So the international community such as [British Prime Minister] Brown and the UN should push India, as the biggest democracy, to press for real transition to democracy in Burma.”

India’s “Look East” policy is based on economic ties with Southeast Asian nations, including Burma, a geo-politically important country for New Delhi.

Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese political observer based on the Sino-Burmese border, said he didn’t think India would change its pro-junta policy in view of its rivalry with China.

“India might think the Burmese regime has become pro-China because India adopted a strong stand for Burmese democracy after the 1988 uprising,” he said.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has, meanwhile, convened the first meeting of a group of 14 countries, including China and India, to help him in his efforts to advance political change in Burma.

The “Group of Friends of the UN Secretary-General on Burma” is a consultative forum for developing a shared approach in support of the implementation of the Secretary-General’s good offices mandate.