Peace Still out of Reach in Burma

Aung Zaw - News Analysis
New America Media
January 30, 2008

Editor's Note:
Burma's 60th Independence Day this month passed largely unnoticed by the international community. But the desire among its international friends to see an unoppressed and free country is strong, notes Aung Zaw, editor and founder of The Irrawaddy Magazine in Thailand.

CHIANG MAI, Thailand – Less than four months after the shattering events of last September, news about Burma has almost completely disappeared from the international radar screen. The regime’s tight control over the country has increased since the protests, and a quiet crackdown on dissidents has continued. The regime's attempt to restore "normalcy" may be working as many dissidents have been locked up and many Buddhist monks have deserted Burma's temples and monasteries.

In this ongoing stalemate, a combination of deep depression, despair and fear continues to grip the country. News from Iraq, Kenya, Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as America’s primaries, has taken over the headlines, and developments in Burma are given little attention.

Nevertheless, as the year 2008 gets under way, the desire among Burma’s international friends to see change there is as strong as ever. These friends keep advocating Burma's cause and maintain the spotlight on the country. They are as determined as Burma's own undefeated souls to keep the Burma issue alive.

On the 60th anniversary this month of Burma's independence, U.S. First Lady Laura Bush strongly criticized the country’s military leadership, saying, "Instead of celebrating their freedom, the Burmese people live in fear, poverty and oppression under General Than Shwe and his military regime." She noted that the United States stands behind detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and "all those working to make sure that by the next January 4 the people of Burma will celebrate real independence."

Britain's Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who has written several commentaries on Burma since the September uprising, also issued a statement saying that the Burmese people's aspirations for democracy, stability and prosperity have been frustrated.

Meanwhile, the European Union's special envoy to Burma, Piero Fassino, said that efforts to promote democracy in Burma must remain "at the top of the international community's agenda." Fassino has made a tour of the region, met with Chinese officials in Beijing, and held talks with United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and special envoy Ibrahim Gambari. Fassino said they found common ground, particularly on the need to enlist the support of all key Asian countries for diplomatic pressure to secure a political dialogue between the Burmese regime and the country's opposition.

But the regime is not interested in dialogue. The appointment late last year of a liaison minister between the regime and Suu Kyi was just an attempt to deflect growing international criticism. The junta "fails to show any interest in talks" with Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit said in its recent annual report.

Frustration and disappointment have also been felt in the neighboring countries. As Indonesia prepared to welcome Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein to Jakarta, Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said that while “some countries in the region choose to be indifferent…we can’t afford to ignore this problem.” He said that his government wanted to see “a more credible process in the implementation of their [the Burmese junta’s] roadmap to democracy.”

Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew has criticized the military junta, saying Burma’s ruling generals were "people with very fixated minds, quite convinced that they will have the natural resources to weather any sanctions." Lee highlighted the role that other countries in the region could play in persuading the junta to embrace democracy. "The members of ASEAN who could influence them [the generals] will be Thailand, and beyond [that] China and India. The rest of us—we are a kind of background muzak," he said.

China, Thailand and India are major trading partners of the regime, and Beijing has been a leading supplier of arms. Singaporean diplomats and officials have been quietly criticizing Burma’s policy on Thailand, which is eager to purchase gas and natural resources from the regime. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told visiting Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win that it had become increasingly urgent to bring about "political reform and national reconciliation" in Burma.

The regime is likely this year to face more diplomatic pressure. Dissidents in exile predict that more street protests similar to those of last September are likely to take place, leading to social unrest and?instability. It seems, however, that Gen. Than Shwe and other leaders are prepared to resist any pressure from inside or outside the country. Than Shwe's recent Independence Day speech contained nothing new, while indicating that the regime's "roadmap" will not be inclusive, and that the boundless power of the military will be maintained. In his speech, Than Shwe said that the “roadmap” would guarantee a "discipline-flourishing democratic state."

More political gambits with the United Nations, in order to appease powerful neighbors like China, are to be expected from the former psychological warfare officer, implying that Gambari may soon go back to Burma. Gambari's mission has been supported by Western and regional governments, although his efforts to bring about political dialogue and national reconciliation have so far been unsuccessful.

Burmese at home and abroad have been increasingly critical of Gambari's work. A Western observer and businessman with keen interest in Burma recently said that there is no question of the good intentions of the United States, the European Union, American First Lady Laura Bush and some regional leaders. But, he added, "It is also disgusting to see them back Gambari, who hasn’t a clue about Burma." All of their words and statements uttered about Burma should be turned into action, he said.

The year 2007 ended with a bloody crackdown and deep repression. Independence Day at the start of 2008 marked only Burma’s recolonization by homegrown dictators. Prospects for the rest of the year remain bleak.