By WAI MOE
The Irrawaddy News
www.irrawaddy.org
March 21, 2008 - As Burma prepares for a referendum on the ruling junta’s draft constitution, many Burmese are expressing growing uneasiness over the prospect of a dead-end charter that appears to be carved in stone. Although the regime has yet to disclose the full contents of the constitution, many have already decided to reject it on the grounds that it will be virtually impossible to change once it comes into force.
Under Section 12 of the draft charter, any amendment would require the support of more than three-quarters of members of parliament. However, with 25 percent of seats going to military appointees, the chance of changes being introduced against the wishes of Burma’s powerful generals is effectively nil.
Two weeks ago, when United Nations Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari was in the country to press for a more inclusive political process, he was told by the head of the junta’s Spokes Authoritative Team, Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan, that the constitution would not remain unchanged forever.
“The democratic rights of the countries where democracy has flourished are different from the democratic rights when they started to practice democracy,” the Information Minister said in a lecture to the visiting envoy on March 7. “It took time for these countries to make their democratic rights mature to the present level. We also will change and develop gradually.”
When the junta announced in early February that it would hold a referendum on the constitution in May, some cautiously welcomed the move as opening a door to future democratic changes. Now, however, many say that there is little room left for such optimism.
“Some people thought that the constitution could be modified in the future. But now that I’ve looked at some of the basic principles of the constitution, I can see that this thinking is totally wrong,” said a businessman in Rangoon, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“If we cannot change the constitution, how can we accept it?”
Despite growing doubts about the constitution, however, he also ruled out any likelihood that the outcome of the referendum would reflect the will of the people.
“Under military rule, we cannot openly say what we really want because we are afraid. So a genuine referendum and election is impossible in this country.”
Win Min, a Burmese political analyst based in Chiang Mai, Thailand also said that it would be meaningless to endorse the constitution without guarantees that it can be altered to meet the needs of the country.
“If we cannot modify the constitution, democratization in Burma cannot grow,” he said, noting that the regime had been careful to block any prospect of unwanted changes.
He also rejected as naïve the argument—made by some exiled dissidents and opposition politicians inside Burma—that the new constitution might pave the way to improvements in the country’s political situation.
While some say that the opposition should be flexible in its approach to the referendum, other observers note that the real problem lies in the inflexibility of the constitution itself.
Speaking to The Irrawaddy on Friday, a Burmese journalist working for an international news agency in Rangoon described the junta’s constitution as “too rigid” to withstand Burma’s political challenges.
“Making a constitution is like building a house—the foundation is the most important part. Over time, the structure on top of this foundation will need to be changed, but this won’t be possible if the foundation is not strong,” he said.
He added that constitutional amendments should be possible with 50 percent approval in parliament. Without this, he said “there is no room to maneuver.”
“If we cannot change the constitution, Burma is on a river of no return.”
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