An Alternative Road Map is Needed Now

By AUNG ZAW
The Irrawaddy News

The road map introduced by the Burmese regime in Burma is in reality nothing other than its own exit strategy. Burma’s paramount leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe wants to ashin htwat—meaning “to come out alive.” And this remains his transitional plan.

The seven-point road map is Than Shwe’s route to lead him out of the country’s political mess unharmed and alive. He just needs to keep it on the table until 2010, ensuring that members of his family and his cronies survive the years safely.

The election he has announced for 2010, and the formation of a civilian government backed by the military, will take place—that much is clear. A determined Than Shwe will make sure nobody sabotages the road map.

The ageing leader made his commitment to the road map clear during his speech he gave on armed forces day in March, in which he said he is not power hungry and intends to hand over control of the government to the winners of the 2010 elections. He is not going to change his mind.

At meeting in Naypyidaw with other leaders and military commanders, just before Cyclone Nargis struck, Than Shwe issued an order to “eliminate” anybody trying to disrupt the constitutional referendum or preparations for the 2010 election.

Regional commanders were given full authority to arrest, detain, and “eliminate” elements found to be planning to sabotage the referendum and election.

The cyclone catastrophe couldn’t deflect Than Shwe from proceeding with the referendum, which was undoubtedly rigged and guarantees that the 2010 election will be similarly manipulated.

The question now is raised: is there any alternative to the “road map?”

The UN has called for an “inclusive” road map and dialogue, although Than Shwe turns a deaf ear. The junta leader strides ahead despite domestic opposition that manifested itself in a campaign to vote “No” in the referendum.

The road ahead will be a stony one for Than Shwe. Dissidents inside and outside the country will no doubt try to sabotage the election. The recent explosion at the office of the Union Solidarity of Development Association (USDA) provided strong evidence that more attacks could take place in the near future.

The blast occurred at the USDA office in the northern Rangoon suburb of Shwepyithar. No casualties were reported.

Formed in 1993, the junta-backed USDA claims to have more than 23 million members out of a national population of 57 million. Its members often have been accused of involvement in thuggish-style attacks against supporters of the pro-democracy opposition.

Similar attacks on USDA members and junta supporters could occur between now and the 2010 election, leading to spiraling violence.

Than Shwe is well placed to overcome all obstacles in his path, however, particularly while the UN and many governments, within the region and beyond, remain divided and indecisive in dealing with the regime.

Burma’s prominent and charismatic opposition leaders and activists who could lead a mass movement or challenge the regime’s legitimacy are either in hiding or in prison. Even if a mass movement takes shape, as it did in the September uprising, troops will no doubt again restore “law and order.”

Furthermore, opposition groups in exile and within Burma are fragmented and have no united voice. Ethnic armies and cease-fire groups are too weak to challenge the regime. Some ethnic groups will participate in the election, at the regime’s behest.

It is time to draw up an alternative to Than Shwe’s road map and prepare for transition. The current map probably ensures that Than Shwe will come out alive but democracy will remain as lifeless as ever.